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Reggie Yinger

2013 Reliever Usage: Early Results from the Bullpen

Sunday June 9th, 2013

Despite heavy usage, Edward Mujica has been good for St. Louis. (US Presswire)

With approximately just over two months of the 2013 season completed, we start to see steady trends in how relievers are used during games. Some managers are good with bullpen decisions, while others continue to use the theory of "only use your closer in save opportunities", instead of actually using their best relief pitcher during a crucial point of the game.

So how exactly have big-league managers used their relievers during the 2013 season thus far? Here are some interesting trends. Thanks to the nifty Bullpen Usage page located on this site, we're able to see exactly how relievers are deployed, or misused.

Thus far, there have been a total of six different pitchers that have thrown four consecutive days. Two of those six pitchers are full time "closers" - Edward Mujica and Fernando Rodney. During the span of those four consecutive days of work, Mujica threw a total of 45 pitches, while Rodney threw a total of 51 pitches, respectively. The other relievers are Alfredo Simon (44), Joel Peralta (59), Matt Lindstrom (28), and Wilton Lopez (48).

Here's a look at all relievers in 2013 with at least five saves.

Rk	Player	SV	Year	Tm	Pit
1	Jason Grilli	23	2013	PIT	464
2	Mariano Rivera	21	2013	NYY	331
3	Jim Johnson	20	2013	BAL	469
4	Joe Nathan	18	2013	TEX	367
5	Edward Mujica	18	2013	STL	353
6	Addison Reed	17	2013	CHW	432
7	Craig Kimbrel	17	2013	ATL	363
8	Sergio Romo	16	2013	SFG	373
9	Tom Wilhelmsen	15	2013	SEA	406
10	Rafael Soriano	15	2013	WSN	394
11	Aroldis Chapman	15	2013	CIN	463
12	Grant Balfour	15	2013	OAK	457
13	Fernando Rodney	13	2013	TBR	481
14	Ernesto Frieri	13	2013	LAA	475
15	Brandon League	13	2013	LAD	383
16	Casey Janssen	12	2013	TOR	256
17	Glen Perkins	12	2013	MIN	355
18	Huston Street	11	2013	SDP	338
19	Jose Veras	11	2013	HOU	422
20	Heath Bell	11	2013	ARI	416
21	Rafael Betancourt	11	2013	COL	325
22	Greg Holland	11	2013	KCR	378
23	Jonathan Papelbon	11	2013	PHI	289
24	Bobby Parnell	9	2013	NYM	392
25	Jim Henderson	9	2013	MIL	321
Rk	Player	SV	Year	Tm	Pit
26	Jose Valverde	7	2013	DET	240
27	Andrew Bailey	6	2013	BOS	286
28	Chris Perez	6	2013	CLE	316
29	Kevin Gregg	6	2013	CHC	299
30	Steve Cishek	5	2013	MIA	429
31	J.J. Putz	5	2013	ARI	222

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/8/2013.

Of the 31 pitchers listed above, a total of 19 have thrown in game situations three consecutive days at least once during the season. Below are the breakouts for those 19 pitchers including the number of appearances with at least three consecutive days of work and the total number of pitches for all of those appearances.

Pitcher	Games	Pitches
Addison Reed	1	56
Andrew Bailey	1	53
Brandon League	1	57
Craig Kimbrel	1	45
Edward Mujica	4	153
Ernesto Frieri	2	103
Fernando Rodney	1	51
Glen Perkins	1	56
Grant Balfour	3	169
Greg Holland	1	58
Heath Bell	1	36
Huston Street	1	41
Jason Grilli	1	42
Jim Johnson	1	51
Joe Nathan	2	75
Jose Valverde	1	47
Jose Veras	1	44
Rafael Soriano	1	57
Sergio Romo	2	61

In total, there have been 87 different pitchers who have thrown three consecutive days this season. Amon the 87 different, who are not considered "closers", these are the top five relievers (same criteria as the above table).

Pitcher	Games	Pitches
Cory Gearrin	3	127
Jesse Crain	2	90
Joel Peralta	2	115
Ronald Belisario	3	104
Scott Rice	3	121

In addition to seeing how pitchers are being used this season, we can also examine at what point pitchers are being used during the course of a game. Fans can access a leverage index to identify when a pitcher is being used, whether it be in high-leverage or low-leverage situation. Fangraphs.com keeps track of different leverage iterations, but for relievers, I'm primarily interested in gmLI which is a pitcher's average leverage index when he enters a game. To summarize the context of leverage, a neutral leverage is 1, a high leverage is anything greater than 1.5, and low leverage is anything less than 1. 10% of all real game situations have a leverage index greater than 2, while 60% have a leverage of less than 1.

Here are the qualified top relievers as it relates to gmLI this season. You can see the full list of gmLI leaders for the 2013 by clicking here.

Pitcher	gmLI
Santiago Casilla	2.33
Edward Mujica	2.06
Bobby Parnell	2.05
Mariano Rivera	1.94
Casey Janssen	1.94
Jesse Crain	1.94
Jim Johnson	1.93

Amazingly, Santiago Casilla of the San Francisco Giants is still tops among all qualified relievers this season despite not appearing in a game since May 20. He's currently recovering from a procedure on his right knee.

Just by looking at all the data collected, we can see that Edward Mujica has pitched a lot for the Cardinals this season, but has also been optimized correctly. Despite appearing in 27 games this season and throwing over 350 pitches, we must remember that Mujica is essentially a one-pitch reliever (split-finger fastball / super change-up).

For fantasy purposes, you can use gmLI to potentially determine how a manager will use a reliever, possibly predicting "cheap save" opportunities, or to determine who the next "closer" might be if the opportunity becomes available. Also, if you're generally looking for a reliever who can help your overall pitching categories, a high gmLI usually indicates that a reliever has likely earned the "trust" of the manager in close games because of his good numbers.

Here are a few relievers that have recorded less than five saves with good gmLI numbers. I wouldn't hesitate to add these relievers for potential cheap saves (when the regular closer has a day off) or simply because they are good in late innings and see a lot of usage.

Pitcher	gmLI	Games	K/9	BB/9	% Owned
Jesse Crain	1.94	30	12.0	2.9	15%
James Russell	1.64	30	8.3	2.6	5%
Joel Peralta	1.55	32	9.5	3.8	20%
Robbie Ross	1.62	27	7.7	2.7	4%
Jared Burton	1.60	28	9.2	3.2	8%
Koji Uehara	1.54	25	12.9	1.5	14%
Sean Doolittle	1.38	27	8.8	1.3	14%

% Owned via Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball

All statistics as of June 7 2013

Reggie Yinger is a writer and the co-founder of Baseball Press. He is also a computer programmer. His work has been featured in several print and online publications. He enjoys fantasy baseball and hates when players bunt in baseball.

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