Reggie Yinger
Fact or Fiction: Kemp, Stanton, Corbin, & More
Saturday April 27th, 2013
Buying or Selling Giancarlo Stanton for the rest of 2013? . (US Presswire)
Although the season is just a month old, many fantasy owners may be panicking due to a slow start, while others are sitting high thanks to a strong start.
Some of the players you have drafted cost a high draft pick, so while the player is struggling now, be sure to get fair value in a trade - and not just dump a player.
Matt Kemp - OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Prior to the 2013 season, Matt Kemp underwent shoulder surgery in October and was questionable to start the season 100% healthy. Although he has appeared in 21 games and "appears" to be healthy, we're not seeing the Matt Kemp we've come to know during the past two seasons. However, Kemp has stated to media outlets that his shoulder is healthy, but why then has Kemp been terrible thus far? Perhaps a mechanical issue to compensate for the injured shoulder that developed at the end of the last season. Kemp has a career strikeout percentage of 23.4%, but is currently sitting at 25.3% for the season.
Reviewing plate discipline from Fangraphs, the biggest disparity in numbers is found in Kemp's contact percentage on pitches outside of the strike zone. Currently, Kemp's making contact on pitches out of the strike zone 49% of the time, with the 2013 league average currently sitting at 65%, and Kemp's career number being 59% of contact made on pitches made outside the zone. Overall, it doesn't appear that Kemp is doing anything out of the ordinary regarding his approach at the plate, perhaps it truly is a mechanical or injury issue. From a fantasy standpoint, Kemp was a very high draft pick and I doubt he will come cheap. However, if an owner is worried after a month, I would try to acquire Kemp for your roster - he's too good of a hitter to go terrible over night.
Verdict: Fiction
Matt Moore - SP, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have historically been good at drafting and developing pitchers, and Matt Moore is just another example of this process. After posting a 1.13 ERA and a 5-0 record to start the season, Moore appears to be the left-handed pitcher every owner thought they would receive when they drafted David Price. In addition to the low ERA and pitching wins, Moore has struck out over a batter every inning he's pitched (38/32). However, don't forget to overlook Moore's control troubles, as he's walked 15 hitters across his 32 innings of work. A quick glance shows that Moore's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) currently sits at 3.24, which is somewhere around where his ERA should be. Overall, Moore was a bargain on draft day and continues to prove that he's an elite strikeout pitcher. Although his walks are of concern, his ability to post big strikeout numbers will help him out of jams. I would expect a jump in ERA to reflect his actual FIP numbers, but he's still a front line starting pitcher at this point.
Verdict: Fact
Giancarlo Stanton - OF, Miami Marlins
Prior to the start of the 2013 season, the Miami Marlins appeared to be an awful team on paper. As we enter the final week of April, the Marlins truly are an awful team. Although Giancarlo Stanton is a bright spot on the team, there's no reason for a starting pitcher to give him good pitches to hit. Based on last seven lineups for the Marlins, they've used players such as Austin Kearns, Greg Dobbs, Joe Mahoney, and even Placido Polanco
to hit behind Stanton. While I'm not personally one to believe in "lineup protection" - Stanton just doesn't have the value with a horrible team such as the Marlins. However, despite the poor performance to start the 2013 season, .203/.320/.250 with zero home runs in 17 games, Stanton also posted similar numbers to start the 2012 season, hitting .246/.292/311 with zero home runs in his first 17 games. Following a slow start, Stanton went on to hit 12 home runs with a .432 on-base percentage during the month of May in 2012. I'm not sure if owners can expect that type of turnaround, however, Stanton has talent and is perhaps just a "slow starter".
Verdict: Fiction
Brandon Crawford
- SS, San Francisco Giants
Fantasy owners likely added Mr. Crawford after their team's roster took a hit when Jose Reyes
was injured. Crawford, 26, enters his third big-league season with the Giants in 2013, posting a career line of .235/299/.333 with seven home runs and two stolen bases. After 23 games in 2013, Crawford has four home runs (tying his mark from 2012) and a slugging percentage of .544. Just looking at the recent success of Crawford should raise a red flag for any fantasy owner. Prior to the 2013 season, Crawford's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) sat around .281. For the 2013 season, his BABIP is .333. In addition to BABIP, two of his four home runs have come against a pitching staff that ranks fourth in the National League in home runs allowed (Milwaukee Brewers). If you're in desperate need of a shortstop or middle infield help, you can ride out the hot streak, but it's not like Crawford has found a new skill set for the upcoming seasons.
Verdict: Fiction
Patrick Corbin
- SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Through four starts, Arizona starter Patrick Corbin is holding a 2-0 record with an ERA of 1.71. As one of the last pitchers selected for the Arizona rotation to open the season, Corbin, 23, has pitched extremely well. Much like the aforementioned Matt Moore, Corbin currently has a left on base percentage of 85.9% which will eventually come down, however, his strikeouts and low walk totals should help his overall numbers. Although he has 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings through his four starts, he's struck our 14 hitters in his last 14.1 innings pitched, while walking three, and allowing just three runs. He throws a lot of first pitch strikes and keeps the ball on the ground when it's put in play. If he's on your waiver wire, he's a must add. If someone owns him currently, perhaps you could acquire him on the cheap.
Verdict: Fact
by Anonymous on Sunday April 28th @ 9:59AM
Kemp may have an elevated strikeout rate, but other than his power numbers, which should come around as his shoulder is strengthened. He is running more than expected and his other numbers are fine. He had a bad first week or so, but has been hitting well since...
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