Chris Davis is no stranger to the major league level, spending four years with the Texas Rangers before joining the Baltimore Orioles during the 2011 season. The 27-year-old Texas native has spent time as an infielder, outfielder, and designated hitter (and even a pitcher).
Drafted in 2006, Davis had little issues hitting minor league pitching while with the Rangers organization. In 2007, while splitting time between the High-A and Double-A level, Davis mashed a total of 31 home runs. In 2008, Davis appeared in 80 games for the Texas Rangers and hit .285/.331/.549 with 17 home runs. In the following season, Davis would hit 21 home runs for Rangers, but posted a .238/.284/.442 triple slash-line.
In 2010, at the age of 24, Davis moved between the big-leagues and Triple-A frequently. He appeared in 45 games for the Rangers, but hit just 1 home run and had a slugging percentage of .292. However, Davis continued to rake at the minor league level, hitting .327/.383/.520 with 14 home runs in 103 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City.
By 2011, the Texas Rangers' front-office was convinced that Davis couldn't translate his minor league success to the big-league level, and he was traded to the Baltimore Orioles along with pitcher Tommy Hunter in exchange for reliever Koji Uehara at the trade deadline.
Prior to the 2012, Chris Davis had accumulated 1082 big-league plate appearances. In 297 games, Davis was a career .252/.301/.448 hitter with a total of 44 home runs. According to fWAR (Wins Above Replacement) - Chris Davis was worth approximately -1.1. In addition to the replacement level numbers, Davis also had an issue with strikeouts, striking out in over 30% of plate appearances from 2008-2011.
In his first full year with the Orioles in 2012, Davis hit .270/.326/.501 with 33 home runs, but still had a 30% strike out rate. Although Davis hit 33 home runs, he seemed to go "hot and cold" at times, as he hit .205/.262/.397 in June with 4 home runs, but was able to hit .320/.397/.660 during the final month of the 2012 season.
In 2013 thus far, Davis has hit 20 home runs and is slugging over .744. In addition to the home runs, he's also hitting .355 with a .437 on-base percentage. According to Fangraphs.com, his fWAR is 3.4 - placing him second among all players in the majors, just behind Miguel Cabrera (3.5 fWAR).
So what has changed for Chris Davis in 2013? Is this a fluke or small sample size? For starters, we've always known that Davis can hit for power, as prior to the 2013 season, Davis was averaging a home run once per 19.7 at-bats for his career. Typically, the league average is around one home run per every 35 at-bats.
The two biggest factors that stand out in 2013 for Chris Davis are his walk percentage and strikeout percentage,as pictured below.
In addition to an increase in walks and a decrease in strikeouts, Davis has increased the number of fly-balls he hits. In fact, the number of fly-balls put in play by Davis has increased the past three seasons from 35.8% in 2010, 36.8% in 2011, 37.5% in 2012, and currently at 43% in 2013, respectively. His 43% fly-ball percentage has resulted in a 30.8% HR/FB ratio in 2013, which currently ranks only second behind Domonic Brown (30.9% HR/FB).
With Davis cutting down on the strikeouts and increasing his walks, his batting average and on-base percentage numbers have benefited the most. Although his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is currently sitting close to the .400 mark, his career numbers prior to the 2013 season were around .335 BABIP. His batting average on balls in play will likely regress back to his career normals as the rest of the 2013 season plays on, but with the improved approach at the plate, he's likely due to post a career high in batting average in 2013. His previous career high in batting average was .275, which came in 2012. Another reason to suspect that Davis' batting average could remain high is the fact that he's primarily a line-drive and fly-ball hitter.
With regards to line-drives hit, from 2008-to-2012, for all big-league players with at least 1600 total plate appearances, Chris Davis ranks sixth among 233 players with a 23.2% line drive percentage. As mentioned earlier, Davis has increased his fly-ball numbers in 2013, but has also increased his line-drive batted ball (24.5% in 2013), which currently leaves his ground-ball percentage at a career low of 32.5%.
Overall, hitting home runs and generating power has never been a concern for Chris Davis. While his 2013 power numbers are way above normal (.389 Isolated Power (SLG-AVG)) - and are likely to fall back to earth a little bit, Davis is proving this season that he's more than just a power hitter who racks up a ton of strikeouts. With an improved approach at home plate, pitchers not only have to worry about Davis hitting home runs, but also have to be aware of his ability to work the count for walks and hit for a high batting average. Not only will Chris Davis become a 2013 American League All-Star, but the 27-year-old could put up MVP-type numbers when everything is said and done.