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Tanner Bell
Identifying Value in Lineups
Thursday June 13th, 2013
Victor Martinez will see plenty of RBI opportunities the rest of 2013 (US Presswire)
In my first article for Baseball Press, I thought it would be a good idea to point out a minor detail about the site that I love, but I'm guessing gets taken for granted frequently. It's the small camouflaged tag line, "Because it's a game of inches".

This is true in any format. Whether you prefer the battles of daily games or weekly head-to-head formats, or the war of a season-long rotisserie competition. Regardless of the format, many fantasy managers lose sight of the simple tenet that playing time is key in this game. At bats (or plate appearances) are king.

Most of the attention in fantasy baseball analysis focuses on the talent and skill of players. Meaning that playing time and at bats are a "market inefficiency". Most fantasy managers don't consider that on average, a lead-off hitter gets nearly one more plate appearance per game than a nine hitter. Every plate appearance is an opportunity to score a run and/or drive in an RBI. If you can squeeze more plate appearances/at bats out of your lineup than your opponents, you're winning that game of inches.

With this in mind, I asked Reggie Yinger (co-founder of Baseball Press) if he could dump all of the lineup information for the 2013 season into a file for me to analyze. I sliced and diced the information, which you can review here.

About The File
The file contains the player's name, the number of games started thus far, the player's lowest and highest positions in the batting order for the season, the player's average spot in the batting order for the season, the number of times batted in each spot of the order the last two weeks, the player's ESPN Player Rater as of June 10th, and the player's pre-season ESPN fantasy ranking.

The recent batting order information is shaded to indicate players who have frequently batted in a certain lineup spot the last two weeks. Dark green indicates a lot of time in one specific spot in the lineup. Light green shading indicates few times in that spot of the lineup.

The Results
Keep in mind you can sort the data in that linked spreadsheet or download it and manipulate as you see fit. Look up your own players. You may find something I missed.

My analysis focused on identifying players that have underperformed thus far (ranked poorly in the ESPN Player Rater) yet they continue to see regular opportunities to hit in prime spots in the lineup. These may be players that can be acquired cheaply (because they're ranked poorly), but will be more productive going forward due to the additional plate appearances they will accumulate over the course of the season.

Player
Frequent Lineup Spot Current Player Rater Spot
Brandon Barnes 1 326
Gregor Blanco 1 336
Melky Cabrera 1 228
Juan Pierre 1 199
Ben Revere 1 266
Andrelton Simmons 1 235
Denard Span 1 260
Zack Cozart 2 342
Alcides Escobar 2 244
Didi Gregorius 2 270
David Murphy 2 367
Alexei Ramirez 2 187
Lance Berkman 3 274
Jason Castro 3 203
Derek Dietrich 3 499
Chase Headley 3 390
Salvador Perez 3 294
Jimmy Rollins 3 216
Nick Swisher 3/4 281
Josh Willingham 3/4 240
Ryan Zimmerman 3 191
Billy Butler 4 231
Lucas Duda 4 306
Adam Dunn 4 301
Ryan Howard 4 250
Garrett Jones 4 259
JD Martinez 4 291
Marcell Ozuna 4 263
Carlos Quentin 4 269
Aramis Ramirez 4 404
Josh Hamilton 5 351
Raul Ibanez 5 248
Paul Konerko 5 402
Russell Martin 5 318
Victor Martinez 5 355
Carlos Pena 5 327
Martin Prado 5 360
*Erick Aybar hit leadoff 10 times from 5/27 - 6/9, but appears to be out of that lineup slot since Peter Bourjos has returned.  Accordingly, he has been omitted from the list above.

Using The Data
I'll give a practical example of how I might use this information. Say my team is towards the bottom of the standings in RBI. Billy Butler, Victor Martinez, and Nick Swisher have struggled this year. At the time of this article, they're hitting .268, .240, and .239, respectively. They're on pace for 91 RBI, 79 RBI, and 60 RBI. If they continue to bat in the valuable 3, 4, or 5 spot in the lineup and start to raise the batting average, they're bound to see an increase in RBI. You could use a similar approach to make up ground in runs by targeting lead off hitters with proven track records (Melky Cabrera, Denard Span, etc.).

Disclaimer
Be careful with this data. Check the most recent lineups before making any rash decisions, because lineups change all the time. As players return from the disabled list or others get hurt, lineups are bound to shuffle.

Conclusion
A lot of these players just aren't very good and have never been very good. However, some have had very productive seasons. Regardless of their performance thus far, the "real-life" managers of these players are sticking with them in the lineup, and we should take note of this opportunity when valuing them.
Tanner Bell is a new contributor to Baseball Press. He also runs a small blog at SmartFantasyBaseball.com where he aims help create smarter fantasy players. Follow him on Twitter @smartfantasybb.
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