Dan Port
Three Up, Three Down - 2012 Outfielders
Thursday February 9th, 2012
Don't be fooled by Michael Morse's big 2011 season. (Icon SMI)
This article will check out three outfielders who should improve at the plate and help fantasy owners looking for help at this vital offensive position, along with a trio who are set to regress this year after nice runs last season.
Three Up
Carl Crawford
- Boston Red Sox
No fantasy player disappointed quite as dramatically in 2011 as Red Sox outfielder Carl Crawford, who inked a seven-year, $142 million deal with Boston last winter. Instead of serving as a catalyst and one of the premiere offensive sparks in baseball, as expected, Crawford struggled mightily throughout most of the season and, despite some recovery, was never able to fully shake the funk that led to a .155 April batting average. He finished the year at .255, with a dreadful .289 on-base percentage, 65 runs, 11 home runs, and just 18 stolen bases. Those numbers were all remarkable disappointments and a stark contrast to the .299 average, .340 on-base percentage, 93 runs, 15 homers, and 50 steals he averaged for Tampa Bay between 2003 and 2010.
The 30 year-old Crawford was a lemon in what was supposed to be one of his best seasons, particularly since he was now a part of a very potent Red Sox lineup. However, there are a few solid reasons for fantasy owners to expect a bounce-back year from Crawford. First, in the five months aside from Crawford's abysmal April, he managed a more passable .279 batting average. Furthermore, his .299 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) last year was well off of his career mark of .328 and the .342 marks he had in 2009 and 2010, a clear signal that he may have suffered simply because struck balls weren't falling for him as regularly. Since his 2011 line drive rate of 18.1 percent was still quite close to his 19.4 percent career rate (source: Fangraphs), it's reasonable to think that his BABIP should improve in the upcoming year. The lack of steals is, alas, still concerning, but if he rebounds in the on-base department, he could have more opportunities there and might be a very valuable fantasy performer this year. Depending on your league, he could be a real steal.
Andre Ethier - Los Angeles Dodgers
Losing a highly-drafted player to an injury is something that can devastate a fantasy team, but in some cases it is actually worse if the player is hurt but remains in the lineup and simply doesn't produce. This was the case with Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier in 2011, as the two-time All Star missed some time with injuries but played through a lot of them and, in 135 games, and managed just 11 home runs. His .292 batting average was just a tick above his career average and his .368 on-base percentage was his best mark since 2008, but the power outage was an alarming result for a player who slugged 31 dingers in 2009 and averaged 25 long balls from 2008 to 2010.
However, if drafted correctly, Ethier is a nice moderate risk for fantasy owners this year and, if he can return to simply a 25 home run form, could prove to be a steal. The solid batting average and on-base marks will ensure that he isn't a complete bust, and it's quite fair to assume that he'll (at least partially) bounce back from a 2011 year that saw him drop nearly 70 slugging percentage points from his 2010 mark (.857 to .789). MockDraftCentral.com currently lists him as the number 35 outfielder and the 131st overall player, but a .290 average with 25 home runs would make him an absolute steal at that spot and, at age 29, he is in a prime year to rebound.
Jayson Werth - Washington Nationals
If there was one fantasy outfielder who could challenge Carl Crawford in terms of disappointment last year, it was likely Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth. Like Crawford, Werth inked a huge off-season deal and failed to provide much of a return on the investment, causing his fantasy stock to plummet this off-season. MockDraftCentral.com lists Werth just inside of the top 100 overall players, which is a dramatic fall for a player who found himself in the top 50 of many fantasy drafts just one year ago.
After hitting .296 with 106 runs, 27 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a league-leading 46 doubles for the Phillies in 2010, Werth managed just a .232 average last year, with 69 runs, 20 homers, 19 steals, and 26 doubles. Jayson didn't establish himself as an everyday big leaguer until he was in his late twenties and, entering 2012 as a 32 year-old, his best days could be behind him. However, full seasons from productive but injured teammates like Ryan Zimmerman should help him out this year and, while a 30 homer season seems out of reach, another thirty-plus points in batting average seems like a safe bet, assuming his BABIP (.286 last season, .324 career) rebounds in his second year with the Nats. A .270 average with 20 home runs and 20 steals may not make him a fantasy baseball dynamo, but it will make him valuable to most fantasy rosters.
No fantasy player disappointed quite as dramatically in 2011 as Red Sox outfielder Carl Crawford, who inked a seven-year, $142 million deal with Boston last winter. Instead of serving as a catalyst and one of the premiere offensive sparks in baseball, as expected, Crawford struggled mightily throughout most of the season and, despite some recovery, was never able to fully shake the funk that led to a .155 April batting average. He finished the year at .255, with a dreadful .289 on-base percentage, 65 runs, 11 home runs, and just 18 stolen bases. Those numbers were all remarkable disappointments and a stark contrast to the .299 average, .340 on-base percentage, 93 runs, 15 homers, and 50 steals he averaged for Tampa Bay between 2003 and 2010.
The 30 year-old Crawford was a lemon in what was supposed to be one of his best seasons, particularly since he was now a part of a very potent Red Sox lineup. However, there are a few solid reasons for fantasy owners to expect a bounce-back year from Crawford. First, in the five months aside from Crawford's abysmal April, he managed a more passable .279 batting average. Furthermore, his .299 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) last year was well off of his career mark of .328 and the .342 marks he had in 2009 and 2010, a clear signal that he may have suffered simply because struck balls weren't falling for him as regularly. Since his 2011 line drive rate of 18.1 percent was still quite close to his 19.4 percent career rate (source: Fangraphs), it's reasonable to think that his BABIP should improve in the upcoming year. The lack of steals is, alas, still concerning, but if he rebounds in the on-base department, he could have more opportunities there and might be a very valuable fantasy performer this year. Depending on your league, he could be a real steal.
Andre Ethier - Los Angeles Dodgers
Losing a highly-drafted player to an injury is something that can devastate a fantasy team, but in some cases it is actually worse if the player is hurt but remains in the lineup and simply doesn't produce. This was the case with Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier in 2011, as the two-time All Star missed some time with injuries but played through a lot of them and, in 135 games, and managed just 11 home runs. His .292 batting average was just a tick above his career average and his .368 on-base percentage was his best mark since 2008, but the power outage was an alarming result for a player who slugged 31 dingers in 2009 and averaged 25 long balls from 2008 to 2010.
However, if drafted correctly, Ethier is a nice moderate risk for fantasy owners this year and, if he can return to simply a 25 home run form, could prove to be a steal. The solid batting average and on-base marks will ensure that he isn't a complete bust, and it's quite fair to assume that he'll (at least partially) bounce back from a 2011 year that saw him drop nearly 70 slugging percentage points from his 2010 mark (.857 to .789). MockDraftCentral.com currently lists him as the number 35 outfielder and the 131st overall player, but a .290 average with 25 home runs would make him an absolute steal at that spot and, at age 29, he is in a prime year to rebound.
Jayson Werth - Washington Nationals
If there was one fantasy outfielder who could challenge Carl Crawford in terms of disappointment last year, it was likely Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth. Like Crawford, Werth inked a huge off-season deal and failed to provide much of a return on the investment, causing his fantasy stock to plummet this off-season. MockDraftCentral.com lists Werth just inside of the top 100 overall players, which is a dramatic fall for a player who found himself in the top 50 of many fantasy drafts just one year ago.
After hitting .296 with 106 runs, 27 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a league-leading 46 doubles for the Phillies in 2010, Werth managed just a .232 average last year, with 69 runs, 20 homers, 19 steals, and 26 doubles. Jayson didn't establish himself as an everyday big leaguer until he was in his late twenties and, entering 2012 as a 32 year-old, his best days could be behind him. However, full seasons from productive but injured teammates like Ryan Zimmerman should help him out this year and, while a 30 homer season seems out of reach, another thirty-plus points in batting average seems like a safe bet, assuming his BABIP (.286 last season, .324 career) rebounds in his second year with the Nats. A .270 average with 20 home runs and 20 steals may not make him a fantasy baseball dynamo, but it will make him valuable to most fantasy rosters.
Three Down
Lance Berkman
- St. Louis Cardinals
Baseball has seen its share of career renaissances over the years, but Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman's 2011 season was particularly memorable because it ended in a World Series title. Berkman spent over half of the last decade as one of baseball's better hitters but declined in 2009 and by 2010, entering the season at the age of 35, his career appeared to be drawing to a close. Hampered by knee injuries and wear upon his burly physique, Lance managed just a .248 average and 14 home runs in 481 plate appearances with the Astros and Yankees in 2010, down significantly from the .300 average and 31 homers he had averaged from 2000 to 2009. However, the Texas native nicknamed "Big Puma" defied the odds last year in tallying 31 home runs and a .310 average for the Cards.
Berkman will be 36 years old when the 2012 season opens and, while his career revival is a nice story, it isn't likely to carry over into the upcoming campaign. Slugger and lineup anchor Albert Pujols has departed St. Louis via free agency and, under new manager Mike Matheny, the Cardinals are not likely to power their way through the NL Central again this time around. While Berkman could produce fair power numbers and a passable on-base average this year, his body and his numbers aren't likely to hold up again in the twilight of his career.
Melky Cabrera - San Francisco Giants
After several lackluster seasons with the Yankees and one with the Braves, outfielder Melky Cabrera made the most of his first year with the Kansas City Royals in 2011 and posted a monster fantasy season. Cabrera, who had never topped a .280 average, 149 hits, 75 runs, 28 doubles, 13 home runs, 68 RBI, or 13 steals in any of his five prior big league seasons, set career highs in all of the above last season by batting .305 with 201 hits, 102 runs scored, 44 doubles, 18 home runs, 87 RBI, and 20 stolen bases. It was a stellar season by any measure and, after being useful only as a stopgap player in most standard fantasy leagues, Cabrera helped many owners surge to their league titles in 2011.
While Melky may have benefited greatly from a low-pressure environment in Kansas City and his hitting maturity finally clicking in at the age of 26, it's still difficult to overlook the mediocre 2,600-plus big league plate appearances that came prior to last year. Beyond that, though, it's impossible to ignore the negative effect that a move to the National League West could have on his hitting this season, particularly as part of a San Francisco Giants club whose offense has been largely anemic during the last few years. A solid season from Cabrera may still not be all that helpful to fantasy owners, given those circumstances.
Michael Morse - Washington Nationals
Of the seven major league hitters who reached the coveted .300 average / 30 home run fantasy stat line in 2011, Michael Morse was certainly one of the most surprising, particularly since it was his first season of full-time play. The 29 year-old outfielder and first baseman will be 30 when the 2012 regular season opens and, with the exception of a .289 average, 15 home run eruption in 293 plate appearances last year, had done little to establish himself as an offensive force in parts of five major league seasons with the Mariners and Nationals.
While Morse's .303 batting average last season looks like it may be in line with the .289 mark he posted in 96 games in 2011 and the .311 mark he posted in minor league play from 2007 on, his 31 home runs are much more of an outlier. In the 782 minor league at-bats Morse has logged since 2007, he smacked just 25 homers and averaged a long ball every 31.28 at-bats. Likewise, in his minor league career he hit one out once every 39.8 at-bats. The 31 dingers he managed in just 522 at-bats last year (equal to one every 16.8 at-bats) is well beyond anything he did in prior seasons and should be a big red flag for fantasy owners. While it's reasonable to assume that a big league workout regimen, better coaching, steady playing time, and more hitting maturity can boost a player's numbers, it isn't really reasonable to expect more than 20 or so home runs from Morse this year. He could still be a useful fantasy piece, but one shouldn't draft or bid him with the expectation of another .300 average and 30 home run year.
Baseball has seen its share of career renaissances over the years, but Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman's 2011 season was particularly memorable because it ended in a World Series title. Berkman spent over half of the last decade as one of baseball's better hitters but declined in 2009 and by 2010, entering the season at the age of 35, his career appeared to be drawing to a close. Hampered by knee injuries and wear upon his burly physique, Lance managed just a .248 average and 14 home runs in 481 plate appearances with the Astros and Yankees in 2010, down significantly from the .300 average and 31 homers he had averaged from 2000 to 2009. However, the Texas native nicknamed "Big Puma" defied the odds last year in tallying 31 home runs and a .310 average for the Cards.
Berkman will be 36 years old when the 2012 season opens and, while his career revival is a nice story, it isn't likely to carry over into the upcoming campaign. Slugger and lineup anchor Albert Pujols has departed St. Louis via free agency and, under new manager Mike Matheny, the Cardinals are not likely to power their way through the NL Central again this time around. While Berkman could produce fair power numbers and a passable on-base average this year, his body and his numbers aren't likely to hold up again in the twilight of his career.
Melky Cabrera - San Francisco Giants
After several lackluster seasons with the Yankees and one with the Braves, outfielder Melky Cabrera made the most of his first year with the Kansas City Royals in 2011 and posted a monster fantasy season. Cabrera, who had never topped a .280 average, 149 hits, 75 runs, 28 doubles, 13 home runs, 68 RBI, or 13 steals in any of his five prior big league seasons, set career highs in all of the above last season by batting .305 with 201 hits, 102 runs scored, 44 doubles, 18 home runs, 87 RBI, and 20 stolen bases. It was a stellar season by any measure and, after being useful only as a stopgap player in most standard fantasy leagues, Cabrera helped many owners surge to their league titles in 2011.
While Melky may have benefited greatly from a low-pressure environment in Kansas City and his hitting maturity finally clicking in at the age of 26, it's still difficult to overlook the mediocre 2,600-plus big league plate appearances that came prior to last year. Beyond that, though, it's impossible to ignore the negative effect that a move to the National League West could have on his hitting this season, particularly as part of a San Francisco Giants club whose offense has been largely anemic during the last few years. A solid season from Cabrera may still not be all that helpful to fantasy owners, given those circumstances.
Michael Morse - Washington Nationals
Of the seven major league hitters who reached the coveted .300 average / 30 home run fantasy stat line in 2011, Michael Morse was certainly one of the most surprising, particularly since it was his first season of full-time play. The 29 year-old outfielder and first baseman will be 30 when the 2012 regular season opens and, with the exception of a .289 average, 15 home run eruption in 293 plate appearances last year, had done little to establish himself as an offensive force in parts of five major league seasons with the Mariners and Nationals.
While Morse's .303 batting average last season looks like it may be in line with the .289 mark he posted in 96 games in 2011 and the .311 mark he posted in minor league play from 2007 on, his 31 home runs are much more of an outlier. In the 782 minor league at-bats Morse has logged since 2007, he smacked just 25 homers and averaged a long ball every 31.28 at-bats. Likewise, in his minor league career he hit one out once every 39.8 at-bats. The 31 dingers he managed in just 522 at-bats last year (equal to one every 16.8 at-bats) is well beyond anything he did in prior seasons and should be a big red flag for fantasy owners. While it's reasonable to assume that a big league workout regimen, better coaching, steady playing time, and more hitting maturity can boost a player's numbers, it isn't really reasonable to expect more than 20 or so home runs from Morse this year. He could still be a useful fantasy piece, but one shouldn't draft or bid him with the expectation of another .300 average and 30 home run year.
by Anonymous on Thursday February 9th @ 8:48PM
RE Morse: did you say the same thing about Bautista two years ago?
by Dan Port on Thursday February 9th @ 11:38PM
I sure didn't. I was a Bautista believer!
by Anonymous on Friday February 10th @ 3:34PM
once you show a skill you own it. aint that what they say? Morse is a power hitter. 25-30 is definitely within reach.
by Anonymous on Saturday February 11th @ 2:24AM
I know this...That bottle of cheap swill is within your reach..Morse will be benched early and often,hope you didn't protect him....245/14/52 He is up for a steal this year,just one if that helps ...
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