Nate Springfield
Three Up, Three Down - 2012 Starting Pitchers
Monday February 6th, 2012
Jeremy Hellickson's luck will likely run out in 2012. (Icon SMI)
This installment will examine three starting pitchers who are due to rise this season and excel beyond their marks last year, along with three who are expected to regress and not match their 2011 output.
Three Up
Max Scherzer - Detroit Tigers
Everyone thought when Max Scherzer was traded out of Arizona's home run happy Chase Field to Detroit's Comerica Park he would raise to elite status in the starting pitcher realm, but the 27-year-old power pitcher has found only moderate success during his time in the Motor City. However, he did provide some optimism in 2011 for an improved performance in 2012. Mad Max improved his walk rate from 3.22 walks-per-nine-innings (BB/9) to 2.58 BB/9. In his second consecutive year of pitching at least 195 innings, his ground ball rate and strand rate held steady, and 16 of his 33 starts were of the quality variety.
From a fantasy stand point, he is not an ace, but he should not fall outside of the first 50 starting pitchers taken in a mixed league draft. 200 strikeout potential may be a pipe dream for the Mizzou alumni, but grabbing 180 K's with a respectable 3.50 ERA and a mid-teens win total is not out of the question for this once top pitching prospect.
Bud Norris - Houston Astros
Bud Norris had his pitching improvements overshadowed, and somewhat hindered, by pitching for the worst team in Major League Baseball last season. It's true, David "Bud" Norris will still be pitching for the Astros in 2012, and they will still be a bad team, but the 27-year-old pitcher shows promise of more improvement. Last season, Bud matured as a pitcher, trading throwing the ball hard all the time for pitching finesse. In doing so, he saw his strikeout rate fall slightly, but his walk rate fell noticeably, allowing him to rack up an impressive 2.51 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With this improvement, he also had a dramatic drop in his WHIP, falling from 1.48 in 2010 to a more respectable 1.33 in 2011.
The curse of pitching for the Houston Astros could be a blessing in disguise for potential fantasy owners though, because at the time this article was published, Norris owned an average draft position (ADP) of 232.16 at MockDraftCentral.com, which makes him undrafted in some mixed leagues. Another reason for optimism this year - Bud traded consistently facing Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder (and possibly Ryan Braun ) for Carlos Beltran and Mat Gamel. He still won't be a big contributor to the win column, but look for him to collect plenty of strikeouts while possibly producing a low 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Ryan Dempster - Chicago Cubs
As mentioned in this Fact or Fiction article from early December, the 35-year-old Ryan Dempster is a good bounce back candidate for the 2012 season. Before his 2011 season, Dempster was one of the more consistent starting pitchers for the previous three years, averaging an ERA in the mid-threes, a 1.27 WHIP, while striking out 567 batters in 622 innings pitched. Last season, he was essentially was the same pitcher, but ran into the bad luck of being backed by a sub-par defense and relying on his two-seam fastball too much and his four-seam fastball not enough.
The 2012 Cubs team has a revamped look, adding better defenders in right field and third base, in David DeJesus and Ian Stewart, with the hopes that young shortstop Starlin Castro can improve defensively from his erratic sophomore season in the field. These improvements alone could help his ERA settle back into the 3.70 range, which when paired with close to 200 strikeouts and double-digit wins, it puts him back on the map as a usable mixed league starting pitcher in 2012.
Max Scherzer - Detroit Tigers
Everyone thought when Max Scherzer was traded out of Arizona's home run happy Chase Field to Detroit's Comerica Park he would raise to elite status in the starting pitcher realm, but the 27-year-old power pitcher has found only moderate success during his time in the Motor City. However, he did provide some optimism in 2011 for an improved performance in 2012. Mad Max improved his walk rate from 3.22 walks-per-nine-innings (BB/9) to 2.58 BB/9. In his second consecutive year of pitching at least 195 innings, his ground ball rate and strand rate held steady, and 16 of his 33 starts were of the quality variety.
From a fantasy stand point, he is not an ace, but he should not fall outside of the first 50 starting pitchers taken in a mixed league draft. 200 strikeout potential may be a pipe dream for the Mizzou alumni, but grabbing 180 K's with a respectable 3.50 ERA and a mid-teens win total is not out of the question for this once top pitching prospect.
Bud Norris - Houston Astros
Bud Norris had his pitching improvements overshadowed, and somewhat hindered, by pitching for the worst team in Major League Baseball last season. It's true, David "Bud" Norris will still be pitching for the Astros in 2012, and they will still be a bad team, but the 27-year-old pitcher shows promise of more improvement. Last season, Bud matured as a pitcher, trading throwing the ball hard all the time for pitching finesse. In doing so, he saw his strikeout rate fall slightly, but his walk rate fell noticeably, allowing him to rack up an impressive 2.51 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With this improvement, he also had a dramatic drop in his WHIP, falling from 1.48 in 2010 to a more respectable 1.33 in 2011.
The curse of pitching for the Houston Astros could be a blessing in disguise for potential fantasy owners though, because at the time this article was published, Norris owned an average draft position (ADP) of 232.16 at MockDraftCentral.com, which makes him undrafted in some mixed leagues. Another reason for optimism this year - Bud traded consistently facing Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder (and possibly Ryan Braun ) for Carlos Beltran and Mat Gamel. He still won't be a big contributor to the win column, but look for him to collect plenty of strikeouts while possibly producing a low 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Ryan Dempster - Chicago Cubs
As mentioned in this Fact or Fiction article from early December, the 35-year-old Ryan Dempster is a good bounce back candidate for the 2012 season. Before his 2011 season, Dempster was one of the more consistent starting pitchers for the previous three years, averaging an ERA in the mid-threes, a 1.27 WHIP, while striking out 567 batters in 622 innings pitched. Last season, he was essentially was the same pitcher, but ran into the bad luck of being backed by a sub-par defense and relying on his two-seam fastball too much and his four-seam fastball not enough.
The 2012 Cubs team has a revamped look, adding better defenders in right field and third base, in David DeJesus and Ian Stewart, with the hopes that young shortstop Starlin Castro can improve defensively from his erratic sophomore season in the field. These improvements alone could help his ERA settle back into the 3.70 range, which when paired with close to 200 strikeouts and double-digit wins, it puts him back on the map as a usable mixed league starting pitcher in 2012.
Three Down
Tommy Hanson
- Atlanta Braves
Tommy Hanson's 2011 season was hampered by a right shoulder injury, and there isn't a scarier thought for a pitcher than a shoulder injury (see Mark Prior and Brandon Webb). Hanson made 22 starts in 2011, racking up 142 strikeouts in 130 innings pitched, but was inconsistent from start-to-start in his performance. This inconsistency is probably a result of the injury that Hanson was trying to pitch through in June and then again in late-July. Last week when asked about the injury, Hanson said that he was, "more optimistic now, than last month" in regards to being able to start the season in the Braves' rotation, but it doesn't sound like he has attempted to throw off a mound at this point in time in his rehab.
Fantasy owners look like they will still have to make a substantial investment if they want to own Hanson this year, considering his current ADP is 94.08, making him the 25th overall starting pitcher selected. Owning Hanson could really sink your fantasy season. The investment in a pitcher that could spend most of the season on the disabled list, along with poor stats while pitching through the injury could prove costly.
Ian Kennedy - Arizona Diamondbacks
Ian Kennedy had a breakout year in 2011 with the Arizona Diamondbacks, posting a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, while striking out 198 batters over 222 innings pitched. His workload increased with the Diamondbacks reaching the postseason, adding 12 2/3 more innings for a season total of 234 2/3 innings, which is almost 41 more innings pitched than his 2010 total. The 27-year-old's workload increase is not the only cause for concern entering 2012, as his strand rate sat at 79.2 percent last season, almost 8 percent higher than the league average. The former first round pick is better than what his numbers were in 2010, but not as good as 2011, expect his performance this season to be somewhere in the middle.
When evaluating Kennedy for draft day, he is a great addition to any staff for the right price, which means you can't buy a repeat of 2011. He is a very strong number two pitcher for any mixed league staff, but certainly not in the fantasy baseball ace realm. Even if/when his ratio stats regress, you can count on close to 200 strikeouts from him, and is still pitching for a very good Arizona team, lending him a good chance of a high-teen win total. Essentially, Kennedy will still be good this year, but don't expect a Clayton Kershaw type-of-year from him in 2012.
Jeremy Hellickson - Tampa Bay Rays
It's never popular to go against the talent of a young potential superstar, but Jeremy Hellickson's success in 2011 had a lot of red flags, indicating a repeat in 2012 is highly unlikely. Even if you don't take into consideration the work load increase last season (193 total innings pitched) - his strikeout rate dropped from 8.17 K/9 in 2010 to 5.57 K/9 in 2011, while his walk rate increased from 1.98 BB/9 to 3.43 BB/9 over the same time period. His 2.95 ERA seems extremely lucky when looking at his .223 batting average on balls in play (BAbip). A strand rate of 82 percent and a FIP of 4.44 (FIP stands for Fielder Independent Pitching - and is a statistic that has proven as a better indicator of future ERAs) should be enough warning for fantasy owners in 2012.
Currently at Mock Draft Central, Hellickson is the 37th starting pitcher being selected with an ADP of 128.44. After analyzing how he earned his stats last season, there is little chance he will be a top-50 starting pitcher for fantasy purposes by the end of the 2012 season.
Tommy Hanson's 2011 season was hampered by a right shoulder injury, and there isn't a scarier thought for a pitcher than a shoulder injury (see Mark Prior and Brandon Webb). Hanson made 22 starts in 2011, racking up 142 strikeouts in 130 innings pitched, but was inconsistent from start-to-start in his performance. This inconsistency is probably a result of the injury that Hanson was trying to pitch through in June and then again in late-July. Last week when asked about the injury, Hanson said that he was, "more optimistic now, than last month" in regards to being able to start the season in the Braves' rotation, but it doesn't sound like he has attempted to throw off a mound at this point in time in his rehab.
Fantasy owners look like they will still have to make a substantial investment if they want to own Hanson this year, considering his current ADP is 94.08, making him the 25th overall starting pitcher selected. Owning Hanson could really sink your fantasy season. The investment in a pitcher that could spend most of the season on the disabled list, along with poor stats while pitching through the injury could prove costly.
Ian Kennedy - Arizona Diamondbacks
Ian Kennedy had a breakout year in 2011 with the Arizona Diamondbacks, posting a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, while striking out 198 batters over 222 innings pitched. His workload increased with the Diamondbacks reaching the postseason, adding 12 2/3 more innings for a season total of 234 2/3 innings, which is almost 41 more innings pitched than his 2010 total. The 27-year-old's workload increase is not the only cause for concern entering 2012, as his strand rate sat at 79.2 percent last season, almost 8 percent higher than the league average. The former first round pick is better than what his numbers were in 2010, but not as good as 2011, expect his performance this season to be somewhere in the middle.
When evaluating Kennedy for draft day, he is a great addition to any staff for the right price, which means you can't buy a repeat of 2011. He is a very strong number two pitcher for any mixed league staff, but certainly not in the fantasy baseball ace realm. Even if/when his ratio stats regress, you can count on close to 200 strikeouts from him, and is still pitching for a very good Arizona team, lending him a good chance of a high-teen win total. Essentially, Kennedy will still be good this year, but don't expect a Clayton Kershaw type-of-year from him in 2012.
Jeremy Hellickson - Tampa Bay Rays
It's never popular to go against the talent of a young potential superstar, but Jeremy Hellickson's success in 2011 had a lot of red flags, indicating a repeat in 2012 is highly unlikely. Even if you don't take into consideration the work load increase last season (193 total innings pitched) - his strikeout rate dropped from 8.17 K/9 in 2010 to 5.57 K/9 in 2011, while his walk rate increased from 1.98 BB/9 to 3.43 BB/9 over the same time period. His 2.95 ERA seems extremely lucky when looking at his .223 batting average on balls in play (BAbip). A strand rate of 82 percent and a FIP of 4.44 (FIP stands for Fielder Independent Pitching - and is a statistic that has proven as a better indicator of future ERAs) should be enough warning for fantasy owners in 2012.
Currently at Mock Draft Central, Hellickson is the 37th starting pitcher being selected with an ADP of 128.44. After analyzing how he earned his stats last season, there is little chance he will be a top-50 starting pitcher for fantasy purposes by the end of the 2012 season.
RELATED ARTICLES