In early February, I wrote an article discussing how some spring training stats can mean something and may give an advantage heading into fantasy baseball drafts. This weekend is one of the busiest and last fantasy baseball draft weekends of the season, so it's a good time to take a look at one aspect from that article and present potential breakout players, according to Jon Dewan's Spring Training Slugging Percentage Indicator.
Breakout Seasons and Spring Training Slugging
Friday March 25th, 2011
As outlined in the mentioned article, the criteria for finding these players is rather simple. Given 40 or more spring training at-bats, if a player with at least 200 career major league at-bats posts a slugging percentage at least 200 points higher than his career slugging percentage, he is poised for a breakout year.
This group of players fit perfectly into the criteria as of the end of play on Wednesday March 23rd.
|Name||ST at-bats||ST Slug%||Career Slug%||Difference|
|Jake Fox - Orioles||61
|Mitch Moreland - Rangers||52||.673||.469||204|
|Starlin Castro - Cubs||49||.673||.408||265|
|Ian Kinsler - Rangers||49||.816||.466||350|
|Alex Gordon - Royals||48||.646||.405||241|
- White Sox
|George Kottaras - Brewers||47||.745||.394||351|
|Coco Crisp - Athletics||46||.783||.410||373|
|Kila Ka'aihue - Royals||46||.804||.398||406|
|Chris Davis - Rangers||45||.822||.459||363|
|Rajai Davis - Blue Jays||45||.711||.383||328|
|Alex Rodriguez - Yankees||42||.952||.571||381|
|Asdrubal Cabrera - Indians
- Dodgers ||40||.600||.354||246|
This method has successfully predicted breakout seasons for hitters at a 60 percent rate over the past six seasons. A 60 percent rate may not sound too special, but many other methods for projecting the outcome of player performance at season's end usually sit closer to 30 percent. It's worth noting the above names if you are looking to take a flier at the end of the draft, or simply want a reason to go an extra dollar on a guy when the bidding stalls in an auction draft.
by Anonymous on Sunday March 27th @ 1:30PM
What if we threw age into the scenario using the age of 30 to separate the two groups. Then how does the success rate look? Just my theory that the breakout players are more likely to come from players on this list like Travis Buck and Alex Gordon then Coco Crisp or Marlon Byrd. I would like to see how high that 60% would go. Paul
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