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The Arizona Diamondbacks had a disappointing 2009 season, finishing last in the NL West. Ace Brandon Webb was lost during his first start of the year, and shortly thereafter, Conor Jackson was lost for the year to the obscure illness, valley fever. Despite the poor finish, some good came out of the year, including the emergence of outfielder Justin Upton as a bona fide star and Mark Reynolds' brilliant season. The Diamondbacks reloaded in the offseason, adding several key players through free agency and trades, and expect Webb and Jackson back for a full season. Arizona stands out as a sleeper team, both in real life and in fantasy. Every single player in the starting lineup can help your fantasy team, as well as most of their rotation. Let's take a look at a few of their players.
Hitters
Justin Upton - OF
Everyone knew Upton had the ability to be a superstar, but few expected it to come this early. He put up a .300 season with 26 HR and 20 SB at just 22 years of age. His potential is as high as anyone, but don't expect another huge jump up this season. Remember that he is still a young player with things to learn. He is certainly not going to sneak up on anyone this season, and pitchers will be focusing on him more than anyone in the lineup. His hit rate was pretty high at 36% in 2009, and a drop in batting average is likely. Look for an average in the .280-.290 range. In addition, he had a 45% ground ball rate, which will make it hard to top the 30 HR plateau. Count on 25 HR/20 SB, and hope for 30/30. He is absolutely worth the value for where he is being drafted, with an ADP around 25, just don't expect a Matt Kemp type season... yet.
Adam LaRoche - 1B
One of their offseason acquisitions was getting LaRoche to play first base. Though he has a well deserved reputation as a 2nd half player, he has been remarkably consistent if you look at his year end numbers. In a roto league, it doesn't matter when you get the stats only that you get them. In a head-to-head league, LaRoche could be riskier if he has another slow start. He is a steady .275 hitter with 25 HR power, a number that could go up moving to Chase Field. Chase Field is one of the most hitter friendly parks in the NL, and is especially known for increasing homers for left handed batters. It would not be a surprise to see LaRoche hit 30 HR and approach 100 RBI hitting in the middle of the Arizona lineup. At his current ADP of 192, LaRoche is a great value if you miss out on one of the top first basemen.
Kelly Johnson - 2B
The D'Backs brought over another ex-Brave to fill out the right side of their infield. From a fantasy perspective, Johnson was on everyone's sleeper list heading into last season as a potential 20/15 player. His skill set has not changed, he is simply cheaper to get this year. He had a ridiculous .247 BABIP last year, which is nothing but bad luck. When he got injured last July, Martin Prado took over the starting job, and Johnson was never given a chance to win it back. But, moving to Arizona, he will be handed the starting job, and if his luck evens out, he will not lose it again. Playing at Chase Field could give him a couple extra HR, and he should be expected to hit 15+ HR, steal 10 bases and hit close to .280. With a current ADP of 292, he is being drafted after Alexi Casilla and Jeff Baker, which is just silly. I'm sure he'll move ahead of those guys as the real drafts begin, but he is going to be one of the last second basemen off the board, and if you can fill your MI slot with a 5 category contributor, you are in good shape.
Mark Reynolds - 3B
Reynolds was an afterthought in most fantasy drafts in 2009. He doesn't need to worry about being forgotten anymore after posting 44 HR and 24 SB. Those kind of numbers are worthy of a first round draft pick, but we all know he is a huge batting average risk. He managed to hit .260 in 2009, after a .239 mark in 2008. The safe bet is that he lands somewhere in between those two numbers. He strikes out over 35% of his plate appearances, which is a horrible number, and gives him virtually no hope of raising his average. In the power department, his HR/fly ball% spiked to 26%, so while his power is very much for real, he is unlikely to top the 40HR mark again. The other potential problem is while he stole 24 bases, he was also caught 9 times, which could lead to fewer SB chances. Expect 15-20 SB, anything more is gravy. So, assuming a drop off across the board, you can still expect .250/35HR/15SB/100RBI, with the potential for more. While he is making frequent appearances on "bust" lists, think about how many players can give you 35/15 production. Pretty short list, isn't it? If you can draft high batting averages around him to offset his biggest weakness, he is certainly going to give you a lot of help, especially from the 3B position. To me, that is worthy of a late 2nd round pick.
Pitchers
Brandon Webb - SP
Webb is the big question mark heading into 2010. He could be the difference maker for the Diamondbacks, as well as for your fantasy team. If he is healthy and back to his previous form, Arizona could have the best 1-2 punch in the majors with Webb and Dan Haren. Webb was among the top 5 pitchers drafted last year, and this year, he is about the 25th starter picked. Obviously, you have a shot at an amazing value there, but shoulder injuries are tough to gauge. Early reports are promising and at this point he is expected to be ready for the start of the season. I can't give you expert medical advice here, but I can tell you Webb is a high risk/high reward pick. He was so spectacular and consistent prior to the injury; I am certainly willing to take a chance on him if he continues to fall in fantasy drafts.
Edwin Jackson - SP
A big offseason trade brought pitchers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to the desert in exchange for pitchers Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth. Jackson finally lived up to his potential pitching for Detroit in 2009. He was a top prospect for the Dodgers earlier in the decade, but never panned out in 3 seasons with the Dodgers followed by 3 seasons in Tampa. It finally clicked for him last season, posting a 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 13 wins. Looking deeper into his numbers, it does appear that his skills growth was for real, but probably doesn't show much more upside from here. He struck out 6.8 batters per 9 innings, which is a good number, but not elite by any means. His big improvement came in his control. He walked just 2.9 per 9, down from 3.8 in 2008 and 4.9 in 2007. Again, that is a decent number, but nothing spectacular. The numbers that worry me a little are a 28% hit rate, which is likely to go up, bringing his WHIP along with it, and his 1.1 HR/9. That is not a terrible rate, but Arizona is not the best place for a fly ball pitcher. Moving from the AL to the NL is always helpful for a pitcher so maybe that balances out the park factor. I see Jackson as a useful end of the rotation pitcher for your fantasy team, but don't look for much improvement over 2009.
The Diamondbacks are a good bet to improve from last season, as they are healthier and look strong across the board. A starting lineup that is solid at every position, a rotation led by Haren, Webb and Jackson, and an underrated Chad Qualls at closer is a great start for your fantasy team and for the fans of Arizona.