It's almost the time of year when you start making a list of fantasy players that you covet, hate, and hope nobody else has ever heard of (so you can steal them in the last couple rounds of your draft). Unless you're brand new to watching television, going on the internet, or communicating with other humans, you already know all about Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez, Tim Lincecum, and Roy Halladay, so I'll look beyond the sure-fire fantasy stars and dig deeper.
What I am going to do is let you in on the studs and duds come fantasy season, moving division-by-division. I will also inform you on the "ugly duckling" players that won't catch your eye on draft day, but may be late-round steals and be the difference between competing for a championship or accepting that you have made your annual donation to your buddies' vacation funds. After some fun in the sun out west, we are heading back to the east coast to examine what the N.L. East has to offer this upcoming fantasy season.
Good: Jayson Werth - OF, Philadelphia Phillies
I absolutely love Werth for the 2010 fantasy season, despite the fact he showed up at spring training doing his best Chewbacca impression. He is a five-tool player that can fulfill any fantasy category. Not only is Werth in his contract year, but he has also had only one season to show us what he can do as a full-time player. What usually happens when players enter their second season? Typically they improve across the board, which is a scary thought considering Jayson's 2009 campaign (.268 AVG, 36 HR, 99 RBI, 98 R, 153 H, 20 SB, .373 OBP). The Philadelphia slugger also performed well in the post-season, which usually translates to a ton of confidence going into the following spring. This guy will probably not slip past the mid third round in mixed fantasy leagues, and will definitely not make it past the second round in NL-Only leagues. If you end up using an early pick on him, you will certainly be rewarded for your choice. Werth plays in a hitter's ballpark in arguably the deepest lineup in baseball, which got better adding annual .300 hitting third baseman Placido Polanco to their lineup. Come October, we will be looking back on a stellar season for Werth, one where he picks up his numbers in every category and drastically raises his batting average. I see his 2010 numbers as: .302 AVG, 39 HR, 105 RBI, 102 R, 170 H, 22 SB, .398 OBP.
Honorable Mention: SP Josh Johnson FLA, 3B Ryan Zimmerman WSH, 3B David Wright NYM
Bad: Raul Ibanez - OF, Philadelphia Phillies
It's way too easy to pick from the Nationals and Mets here, so I'll go with another Phils player. Raul Ibanez had an All-Star season in 2009, posting a .272 AVG, 34 HR, 93 RBI, 93 R, 136 H, 4 SB, and a .347 OBP. Numbers like these in a lineup like Philadelphia's leap out at any fantasy owner, but do not be fooled! Looking deeper into these numbers, Ibanez had 22 of his home runs and a .309 average before the All-Star break. That means he had a .240 average and just 12 homers after the break- not good. Fantasy owners that spend a high pick on the 38 year-old outfielder this season may wish we were still in the steroid era. Time will catch up to Raul this season and he should continue his 2009 second half fade. Also, keep in mind the he is coming off of sports hernia surgery in November, which may affect his performance moving forward. Furthermore, Ibanez has hit over 30 home runs only twice in his career. Many people could be looking at Raul as a number two outfielder in deep mixed leagues or possibly a number one for NL-only teams (or at least ones that focus on pitching and being strong up the middle ahead of outfielders). You can kiss your fantasy season goodbye if this is you. Ibanez will have a decent 2010 season, but nothing deserving of the high pick he will receive in most drafts. Look for: .260 AVG, 22 HR, 79 RBI, 80 R, 110 H, 2 SB, .320 OBP.
Honorable Mention: OF Chris Coghlan FLA, OF Jason Bay NYM, OF/1B Adam Dunn WSH
"Ugly Duckling": Troy Glaus - 1B/3B, Atlanta Braves
It is very easy to forget about players that miss an entire season. Glaus is one of those guys you should always remember in the late rounds of your fantasy draft, or even as a roster-filling undrafted free agent. The bottom line on Troy is that he has produced power and OBP every season he has been in the majors. His injury in 2009 snapped a streak of nine straight seasons with an OPS over .800 and only two seasons ago Glaus pounded 27 home runs. He comes to Atlanta healthy and as the everyday first baseman (he may also have third base eligibility, depending on your league rules). His best value comes in NL-only leagues and he could be the steal of the draft if you're in one of those. In mixed leagues, Glaus could hold down a spot as a utility player for power-deficient teams and could fill in nicely for injuries or even anchor a trade. In money leagues, Glaus could be a savior for some teams, providing a lot of power and RBI for a cheap price. Glaus should also be aided by hitting behind young hitters with high averages, such as second baseman Martin Prado, shortstop Yunel Escobar, and outfielder Jason Heyward (depending on how the Braves handle their future star). If his health holds up, look for Troy Glaus circa 2002 and numbers similar to: .265 AVG, 29 HR, 86 RBI, 70 R, 120 H, .370 OBP.
Honorable Mention: SP Ricky Nolasco FLA, OF Cameron Maybin FLA, RP Brian Bruney WSH