A few readers have inquired by e-mail about player forecasts/projections for 2010. After responding to all inquires, I figured I would post a couple of the more interesting questions. Have a question about a player projection? Draft Strategy? Or just want to talk baseball? Drop us a line using our Contact Form.
Here we go:
Matt writes in about RHP Shaun Marcum of the Toronto Blue Jays:
Is Marcum starting for the Blue Jays and is he a "sleeper" this season?
Yes, Marcum is starting for the Blue Jays in 2010 and because of the departure of Roy Halladay, Marcum figures to slot as the number one or two starter along with LHP Rickey Romero. After missing most of the 2009 season while recovering from Tommy John Surgery, owners have forgotten about Shaun and his performance during the 2007 and 2008 seasons. In 2007, Marcum posted a 12-6 record, 4.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9 ratio and captured the attention of all AL-Only owners along with some mixed league owners. Following up his 2007 campaign, Marcum posted a 9-7 record, 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a 7.3 K/9 ratio in 2008, but was shut down for elbow issues which led to the Tommy John Surgery.
Like I mentioned above, owners have obviously written Marcum off due to his absence in 2009, but that doesn't mean you should follow suit. Marcum is currently being drafted in just 31% of AL-Only leagues with an average ADP of 215 according to Mock Draft Central which means, he'll be there for the taken and is a solid investment. In mixed league formats, Marcum is barely owned (3%) and is a great rebound candidate and will have the tag "sleeper" as we draw closer to draft day. Owners will expect to pluck him from the waiver-wires after a few starts just so they feel confident in his health, but beat them to it and grab him as a late-round flier.
With Shaun slated to be the "ace" of the Blue Jays staff, he could easily acquire a 10-win season, but he could also lose 10 games because of the AL East. I'm willing to roll the dice and bet on a 10-win season for Marcum with a nice 7.1 K/9 ratio and (hopefully) a 4.09 ERA.
For AL-Only Leagues: Definitely worth a roster spot and should could cheap. Look for him in the late rounds (remember he's only owned in 31% of leagues).
For Mixed Leages: Worth a shot if you have the room in later rounds, but if you pass on drafting him, he will probably be available as a free agent pickup.
Next question from the inbox:
Sean writes in about RHP Robinson Tejeda of the Kansas City Royals:
What do you think his role will be in 2010? And a fearless forecast from you would be appreciated.
Tejeda will be fighting for a spot in the Kansas City rotation behind Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, and Brian Bannister. With at least three of the rotation spots definitely locked up, Tejeda is battling with Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar. Ultimately, Davies' spot in the rotation is safe, so that leaves Hochevar and Tejeda looking to earn the final spot. Before the Royals can even consider moving Tejeda to the rotation, he will have to prove that he is for "real" as a starting pitcher.
Tejeda did fairly well once named a starter during the last month of the 2009 season, posting a 3-1 record with a 2.84 ERA. Before getting too excited about the strong finish last season, Tejeda has some questions to answer with regards to his control. His BB/9 ratio was 6.1 in 2009 and has a career 5.2 BB/9 ratio. On the flip side of the coin, Robinson had a 10.6 K/9 ratio last season and has a 7.5 K/9 ratio for his career. Forecasting a projection for Tejeda is complicated because his numbers have you to believe he will be pitching from the bullpen in 2010. IF he does land in the starting rotation early enough in 2010, I see a possible 8 win season in his future along with a mid-4 ERA and a K/9 ratio that doesn't blow you away, but is consistent.
For AL-Only Leagues: If you absolutely need pitching help, he's worth a pick-up, but only in the last or next to last round. I actually drafted him during the 22nd round of a twenty-three round, 15 team mock-draft.
For Mixed Leagues: I would stay away from him right now until we find out what his role will be. You should have a good idea of his spot on the Royals as spring training closes, but he's worth a look later in the season.